Recent information on the publication of the WWWI: in the future, the Weekly WIFO Economic Index will be published mothly on WIFO's website.
WWWI for GDP and its subcomponents
The inflation-adjusted volume of non-cash transactions, as an indicator of household final consumption expenditure, showed a slowdown in demand for goods (retail sales) in February and a slight increase in services compared with a year earlier. In February, private consumption fell by almost ½ percent year on year and by 1¼ percent in the first half of March (January +1 percent)1.
The development of gross fixed capital formation is determined by economic output (industrial production) and sentiment in the manufacturing sector (according to the WIFO-Konjunkturtest – business cycle survey). In February, an increase of 2 percent year on year is expected (January –¼ percent).
The export-weighted growth momentum of the OECD trading partners weakened somewhat in February. Truck mileage on Austrian highways and the volume of goods transported by rail declined compared to the same period of the previous year. In contrast, the number of passenger and freight flights handled increased. Together with the development of the domestic manufacturing sector and a more favourable development of exports compared to imports, as in January, this results in an estimated positive contribution of net exports in the broad sense to GDP growth of ¼ percentage point in February (first half of March +½ percentage point).
The development in freight transport is also reflected in the transport sector (NACE H). In February, value added is still estimated to have increased by 2½ percent compared to the previous year (first half of March +1¼ percent, January +2½ percent).
The number of persons looking for work in February in the producing sector (NACE A to E) remained at an exceptionally low level. The expectations of manufacturers in the WIFO-Konjunkturtest increasingly point to an improvement in production. For February, WIFO expects value added in the producing sector to have increased by 3¼ percent year on year (January +¾ percent, December –3½ percent).
However, according to the WIFO Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey), sentiment among construction companies continued to deteriorate. For the construction industry (NACE F), a year-on-year increase in value added of 2½ percent is expected in February, which slowed to +1½ percent in early March (January +½ percent, December –2¼ percent).
Value added in tourism (accommodation and food services, NACE I) was still 1¼ percent higher in February than in the same period of the previous year, and 4 percent lower in early March.
As in January, value added in trade (NACE G) remained below the previous year's level in February and early March (–1¾ percent and –½ percent, respectively, January –4½ percent).
Based on the continued low level of unemployment and the development in manufacturing, value added in the remaining market services (NACE J to N) is estimated to have grown by 3¾ percent in February compared to the previous year (first half of March +3¼ percent, January +3¼ percent).
In other personal services (NACE R to T), value added is estimated to have increased by 5½ percent and 5 percent respectively in February and early March compared to the previous year (January +9½ percent), based on price-adjusted non-cash payments in the events sector.
1 The inclusion of newly published monthly and quarterly data, which have to be satisfied in the estimation of the WWWI, led to an upward revision of the WWWI (January 2023 +2¼ percentage points) and its subcomponents. On the production side, the revisions affect all economic activities, with larger positive contributions coming in particular from the producing sector (NACE A to E), accommodation and food services (NACE I) and other market services (NACE J to N).
