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Restrictive monetary policy dampens inflation effectively, but it also raises stress in financial markets. This happens through revaluations of financial assets on banks' balance sheets and through dampened economic activity. Moreover, apart from the positive effect of exiting negative interest rates, banks' net interest margin is generally negatively affected by interest rate hikes. With most of the disinflationary impact of higher interest rates yet to materialise, monetary policy should allow the financial sector to digest the rapid rate hikes of last year by reducing the pace of tightening.

Austrian inflation has again been significantly higher than euro area inflation since September 2022. Both domestic and external demand and supply shocks have contributed to this, reflecting the following circumstances: a later implementation of price-dampening measures than in the rest of the euro area, expansive fiscal policies, the resurgence of international tourism, and a delayed pass-through of the decline in wholesale energy prices. By contrast, wage shocks have so far not made a sustained contribution to the inflation (gap), although wage increases have recently been high.

In response to rising inflation, monetary policy in many countries around the world has recently been tightened, often sharply. This Research Brief shows that central banks have reacted with remarkable similarity, and that, contrary to what current policy rates might suggest, tightening in the USA and the euro area has so far been of roughly the same magnitude. It is also shown that the disinflationary effects of monetary tightening are not yet clearly evident. This is true both for the world's major currencies as well as for European currencies. The report then draws on new empirical evidence which shows that the ECB's interest rate policy from 1999 to 2019 had the desired effect on inflation, but that this effect unfolded only gradually. Thus, the price-dampening effects of the current tightening cycle have yet to materialise. The more monetary policy is tightened now, the more disinflation will be amplified as non-monetary price shocks unwind. It therefore seems appropriate to wait for the effects of the monetary policy measures taken so far before tightening further.

Die gegenwärtigen und sich fortsetzenden demografischen Veränderungen, insbesondere die Zunahme der älteren Bevölkerung, haben bedeutende Auswirkungen auf den Staatshaushalt. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht den Einfluss des demografischen Wandels auf die öffentlichen Ausgaben Österreichs für Pensionen, Gesundheit, Bildung, Pflege und Familien unter Berücksichtigung der aktuellen gesetzlichen Rahmenbedingungen. Der Wechsel geburtenstarker Jahrgänge ("Babyboomer") von der Erwerbstätigkeit in das Pensionsalter sowie der Anstieg der Lebenserwartung und die damit verbundene stärkere Inanspruchnahme von Gesundheits- und Pflegedienstleistungen haben eine Zunahme der (öffentlichen) Sozialausgaben zur Folge. Hinzu kommt, dass die Staatsverschuldung aufgrund des COVID-19-bedingten Konjunktureinbruchs und der expansiven Fiskalpolitik deutlich über dem Ausgangswert der letzten langfristigen Prognose liegt. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird die Staatsverschuldung in wenigen Jahren mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit wieder rascher expandieren als die nominelle Wirtschaftsleistung.

Die wirtschaftlichen Aussichten haben sich seit der letzten WIFO-Prognose weltweit eingetrübt. Dies hat auch Folgen für die erwartete Erholung in Österreich. Vorlaufindikatoren deuten auf eine Konjunkturabschwächung hin, die 2022 vorwiegend die Industrie betrifft. Dagegen wird der Tourismus 2022 überproportional zum Wirtschaftswachstum beitragen. Nach +4,8% im Vorjahr erwartet das WIFO für 2022 und 2023 ein reales BIP-Wachstum von 4,3% bzw. 1,6%.

The economic outlook has clouded worldwide since the last WIFO forecast. This also has consequences for the expected recovery in Austria. Leading indicators point to an economic slowdown that will predominantly affect industry in 2022. In contrast, tourism will contribute disproportionately to economic growth in 2022. After +4.8 percent in the previous year, WIFO expects real GDP growth of 4.3 and 1.6 percent for 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Amidst an already heightened inflation environment, the repercussions of the war in Ukraine resemble a macroeconomic supply-side shock which puts monetary policy in a challenging situation. The ECB faces a difficult trade-off and needs to find the right balance between dampening inflation and sustaining economic growth. Our empirical estimates suggest that the ECB is presently not overly loose relative to its historical monetary policy record and that current inflation cannot be easily tamed by monetary policy alone.

Die wirtschaftlichen Aussichten haben sich seit der letzten WIFO-Prognose weltweit eingetrübt. Dies hat auch Folgen für die erwartete Erholung in Österreich. Vorlaufindikatoren deuten auf eine Konjunkturabschwächung hin, die 2022 vorwiegend die Industrie betrifft. Dagegen wird der Tourismus 2022 überproportional zum Wirtschaftswachstum beitragen. Nach +4,8% im Vorjahr erwartet das WIFO für 2022 und 2023 ein reales BIP-Wachstum von 4,3% bzw. 1,6%.

The COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences continued to shape the development of the global economy in 2021. Regionally, economic activity was heterogeneous, although the rapid recovery in industrial production resulted in supply bottlenecks and sharp price increases in many areas. The domestic economy expanded again, although economic activity fluctuated once more strongly over the year and was largely influenced by the COVID-19 health care policy measures. With the economic recovery, average hours worked also increased, which had a positive effect on per capita incomes. Together with improved consumer confidence and savings reserves from the previous year, this increased households' willingness to spend. Rising raw material prices had an inflationary effect, causing the Consumer Price Index to rise significantly, particularly at the end of 2021.